In 43 areas that switched from Labour to Conservative in the 2019 General Election (so-called “Red Wall” constituencies), around a third more adults have no qualifications when compared with the rest of the country.

In addition, the SME sector around the country is able to borrow at rates of 42% more than SMEs operating in Red Wall areas, and business start-up rates are 17% higher in non-Red Wall areas.

In 43 local authority areas that contain “Red Wall” constituencies, The UK Prosperity Index 2021 found that:

the proportion of adults with no qualifications is 10.4% vs 7.8% nationally (a third more);
31% of adults have at least level 4 qualifications compared to 39.9% for the rest of the country;
the value of loans provided to SMEs by major banks is £3,205 per person compared to £4,555 per person nationally (42% more);
business start-up rates are 46 per 10,000 compared to 54 per 10,000 people nationally (17% more); and
there are 13.8% more deaths between the ages of 20-64 and 31% more homicides compared with the national average.

Whilst upgrading infrastructure is often highlighted as the most important factor when it comes to levelling up, the Index shows that the Red Wall areas often do not fall behind in these areas, and in some cases lead the rest of the country.

In 43 local authority areas that contain “Red Wall” constituencies, The UK Prosperity Index 2021 found that:

download speeds are slightly faster, on average, than the rest of the country (74.4 Mb/s vs 72.1) and superfast broadband is available in more than 96% of properties, compared to 95% across the UK;
just 7% of properties are not connected to the gas network, compared to 14% across the UK;
there is almost 10% less urban congestion (57.5 hours/year lost to congestion compared to a UK average of 63.7 hours / year); and
only 2.9% of principal roads and 4.3% of non-principal roads need maintenance compared to the UK average of 3.4% and 4.9% respectively.

This new analysis is being released today by the Legatum Institute’s Centre for UK Prosperity, which has – under the directorship of Professor Matthew Goodwin – developed The UK Prosperity Index.

In a bid to help the Government deliver its “levelling up” promise and ahead of the Government’s White Paper on Levelling Up, the Index uses 256 indicators to assess prosperity across 379 local authorities, making it the most comprehensive assessment of prosperity across the whole country.

These indicators go beyond the usual measurements of GDP, infrastructure, and transport, in order to assess institutional, economic and social wellbeing across the country.

Published today, new analysis from the Index reveals that, on average, Red Wall areas are less prosperous than most other areas, and 35 of the 43 Red Wall areas (81%) find themselves in the bottom half of the UK Prosperity Index rankings.

The Index also shows that the value of venture capital invested by UK venture capital firms is £83.2 per person in the Red Wall, compared to £145.6 per person nationally. And the number of small businesses that have been successful in accessing equity finance is about half as much as the national average in Red Wall seats (18.1% vs 36.2% nationally).

The UK Prosperity Index also found that if you live in the Red Wall, worse health outcomes mean you are more likely to:

have diabetes (8% vs 6.9% nationally);
have a disability (24% vs 21.6% nationally);
be obese as an adult (66% vs 62.7% nationally);
be obese as a child (24.2% vs 22.3% nationally);
die from alcohol misuse (13.2 deaths per 100,000 vs 11.9 nationally);
die when under 1 year old (4.3 deaths per 1000 live births vs 3.8 nationally);
die when between the age of 1-19 (13.7 deaths per 100,000 vs 12.7 nationally);
die when between the age of 20-64 (266.2 deaths per 100,000 vs 233.9 nationally);
have a lower life expectancy at 65 (18.5 years vs 19.9 nationally);
suffer from depression, as recorded on GP practice disease registers (12.8% vs 11.1% nationally).

Violent crime is another rate limiting factor when it comes to building prosperity. In the Red Wall there are more homicides (14.8 per 100,000) compared to the national average (11.3).