As IS-K increases its terrorist attacks, control and recruitmnet in Afghanistan, Barbara Kelemen, an Associate and the lead intelligence analyst for Asia at Dragonfly, shares her views on the worsening situation:

“Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) is getting stronger in Afghanistan, with long-term implications for the global terrorist threat. It has expanded its operations and there are early signs that it is preparing to try to govern in parts of the country. A surge in recruitment seems to be contributing to the group’s growing strength.

“Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in August IS-K has expanded its operations, particularly against the Taliban. Local reports suggest that it is carrying out attacks almost daily. There are few prospects for containment of IS-K inside Afghanistan in the coming months. Despite mounting several security operations against the group, the Taliban seems unable to effectively disrupt IS-K’s operational capabilities.

“IS-K has both local and global objectives. In Afghanistan, it aims to hold and govern territory under its interpretation of the Sharia, and there are already signs that it is beginning to do so, at least in Nangarhar.

IS-K beyond Afghanistan

“IS-K’s ambitions are not limited to national borders, and it now seems to be expanding its focus to include Pakistan. The group has mounted at least six attacks there over the past two months, all of them in the border region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. We anticipate that as IS-K continues to grow in strength in Afghanistan, it will probably have more success in projecting its influence into Pakistan.

“There are some signs that a scenario similar to Syria and Iraq in 2014 may be emerging. For example, we have already seen social media posts which suggest that a Dutch national tried to join IS-K. Despite this evidence, we have some doubts that IS-K would be able to drum up the same appeal for would-be-jihadists that IS did in Syria and Iraq in 2014.

“For now neither IS-K nor IS seem to be actively encouraging people to come to Afghanistan. And the country’s geographical location compared with that of Syria and Iraq would make it much more difficult for would-be recruits to get to. Still, IS-K operating freely in a more permissive environment will probably serve as a propaganda, galvanising supporters to sustain IS globally.”