As Love Island enters its final week, new research has revealed that on paper, Paige Thorne is most likely to win this year’s show – in spite of her being in the bottom three ahead of tonight’s episode.

The research conducted by Paddy Power Games, looked at all nine previous series of the main and celebrity editions of Love Island, with a 24-year-old, brunette, who entered the villa in Week One, and remained loyal throughout Casa Amor, being the ideal winner.

The Irish gaming brand looked at variables such as average age, profession of previous winners, as well as the number of recouplings and Casa Amor betrayals to work out who is most likely to win, with Paige Thorne closely matching the data.

Paige is 24, brunette, entered in Week One and stayed loyal during Casa Amor and as it turns out, the break-down of Paige’s former relationship in the villa may have been the best thing to have happened in her to heighten the Welsh paramedic’s chance of winning the UK’s most famous dating show.

The Love Island girl with the best chance of winning:

Age
24
Occupation
Fashion and beauty
Hair colour
Brunette
Enter the villa
Week 1
Number of villa partners
2
Casa Amor
Stay with partner

The data revealed that the Love Island girl with the best chance of winning does not put all their eggs in one basket but in fact has two villa partners throughout their time on Love Island. Paige is now on her second romance in the villa, dating notorious womaniser and former Love Islander Adam Collard. Adam’s arrival to the villa has been one of the show’s most shocking moments to date, after making a return to the villa after first appearing on season 4 in 2018.

Although Paige is the most typical winner, matching five of six key characteristics, none of this year’s honeybun line-up is the perfect match, according to research.

Despite featuring a predominantly English cast each year, a third of all winners have come from elsewhere in the UK, or beyond – such as Liam Reardon’s hometown of Merthyr in Wales, and Paige Turley’s Scottish home of West Lothian.

A Paddy Power Games spokesman said: “Looking back at previous seasons, there are some clear patterns for how to win the show, and Paige Thorne’s Love Island journey has given her the strongest chance of taking the crown.

“Although Paige’s heartbreak instigated by Jacques may have been devastating for viewers to watch, this turn of events has increased her chances of winning. So, if I were you Paige hun, I’d count your lucky stars because those tears have been gold dust for your future brand deals.”